Nine dragons, the three most popular enterprises,

Three nine dragons lead the fall, and the country abolishes domestic and foreign troubles! Research: the packaging station shipment psychology is pessimistic. Is the winter of national waste coming

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core tips: [China Packaging] i. the 22nd batch of waste paper imports exploded! The quota rose by more than 233%, and the number of approved enterprises reached a record high. On October 18, the import of foreign waste exploded again! According to the company of solid waste management center, on October 18, the import of foreign waste exploded again! According to the announcement of the 22nd batch of restricted import licenses released by the solid waste management center in 2018, the total approved import volume of this batch of foreign waste import was 2012821 tons, and 47 enterprises were approved, setting a record for the highest number of fixed factories in terms of downstream demand for base metals in 2018. Nine Dragons Paper (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. received up to 6025700 tons of approvals this time, accounting for 29.82% of the total approved and issued this time

it is worth mentioning that many paper mills in Zhejiang seem to have got rid of the haze of environmental protection, and the number of approved factories is the largest in this license publicity. Compared with the public data of the 21st batch of foreign waste, the approval limit of this batch of foreign waste increased significantly, with a total growth rate of more than 233%. At the same time, the total volume reached the third place in the published batch, and some paper mills got the approval for the first time in the year. See details: Nine Dragons at most! The 22nd batch of waste paper import volume was announced, and more than 2 million tons poured in! 60 paper mills nationwide cut waste paper prices! How can we not fall

the recent trend of national waste has been straight down, which is related to the approval of large quantities of foreign waste imports. But things in the world are often like eating meat before you know it and losing money after you know it. It is impossible for more than 99% of the packing station bosses to know the inside story. As the financialization of waste paper trading becomes more and more obvious, it is suggested that waste paper business be fast in and fast out to earn reassuring money. You don't hear the ancient saying: "let the weak water be threethousand, I only take a ladle to drink"

II. Research: the price of domestic waste continues to be cold, and the packaging station is pessimistic about the shipment psychology.

after the sharp reduction of the price of domestic waste at the end of September, although the price rebounded in early October, it has not yet reached the previous high point. In order to understand the shipping status of each packaging station at this stage, some packaging stations were specially investigated

this survey includes 13 packaging stations in Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu and other places, which provide metal like performance stations with a slight weight. Among them, there are 7 companies with a monthly receiving volume of less than 500 tons, 3 companies with a monthly receiving volume of 500 tons to 1000 tons, and 3 companies with a monthly receiving volume of more than 1000 tons

shipment: of the 13 packaging stations, 11 basically did not stock up, and 2 had some stock up. But in the face of the changing market, all packaging stations without exception chose fast in and fast out. The two packing stations with inventory also told that they should not have stocked up before and did not sell in time. The sudden price collapse before made the operators of the packaging station panic all day. After the price rose slightly, they all chose to sell goods and stop losses immediately. Most of them are pessimistic about the future trend of the market and believe that it is difficult for prices to rebound

to sum up: according to previous experience, practitioners will choose to stock up when prices rise. However, the price drop this time was beyond imagination. Even if there was a big rebound, the panic of the operators of the packaging station has not been eliminated. In particular, bad news has emerged one after another recently, from the escalating Sino US sweater war to the sudden arrival of the 22nd batch of foreign waste approvals totaling 2million tons on October 18. The market situation of downstream finished paper is not ideal, and the new 2million tons of foreign waste has become the last straw that kills the price of domestic waste in the upstream. Due to internal and external troubles in the market, the packaging stations that have been directly impacted naturally dare not hoard any more. Even if they need to cut meat and sell goods, they have no choice in order to survive. In recent days, the price of national waste still tends to decline, and the winter of each packaging station may come ahead of schedule

some of the three nine dragons bases in the north were downgraded yesterday, driving most of the surrounding manufacturers, mainly in Hebei, to fall 50. Shandong is dominated by Dezhou and Weifang Huisheng, and many manufacturers cut by 50, and the market fell significantly. The South and East China basically maintained stability yesterday, Zhejiang sporadic small factories adjusted themselves, Fujian Zhangzhou Shanying increased by 50, and the rest of the manufacturers were multidimensional and stable. On October 19, the maximum reduction was 100 yuan/ton, the maximum increase was 60 yuan/ton, and the waste paper index was 2211.27, down 0.36% month on month. In East China, RMB/ton was reduced, while in Zhejiang, it was increased. The price in South China will be reduced by 30 yuan/ton

Shandong Zoucheng taiyanghonghe paper industry, the price of waste paper is reduced by 60 yuan/ton, and the C-level is reduced by 100 yuan/ton

Shandong Liaocheng Zhongzhi Yinhe Paper Co., Ltd. reduced the price of waste paper by 50 yuan/ton

Shandong Tai'an Taihe Paper Co., Ltd. lowered the price of carton board by 40 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Jiaxing Shanying (Ji'an) paper industry, the white waste category was increased by 60 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Jiaxing Jingxing paper industry, let's learn about the increase of 60 yuan/ton of office waste paper

Zhejiang Taizhou forest paper industry, the price of waste paper was reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Taizhou Xinrong paper industry, the price of waste paper was reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Fujian Quanzhou Nine Dragons Paper Co., Ltd. lowered the price of yellow paper by 50 yuan/ton (Level D unchanged)

Fujian Zhangzhou Yingsheng paper industry, the national waste will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Sanxing paper industry in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province, reduced the price of waste paper by 50 yuan/ton

Fujian Zhangzhou Port promotes paper industry, and the price of waste paper is reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Fujian Zhangzhou Liansheng paper industry, the yellow board category was reduced by 30 yuan/ton, and the white waste remained unchanged

Fujian Zhangzhou HUAFA paper industry, the price of waste paper was reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Jiangsu Suqian Shangshan paper industry, the price of waste paper was reduced by 50 yuan/ton

Guangdong Dongguan Shuangzhou paper industry, the price of waste paper was reduced by 30 yuan/ton

III. data: the future trend of waste paper, the main tone is stable and upward

due to tighter import restrictions on waste paper, domestic and foreign waste paper prices are differentiated, and domestic waste paper price changes are more subject to domestic supply and demand. It is expected that China's import volume will decline sharply from 2018 to 2020, the growth of recycling volume will be difficult to fill the gap, and the overall supply of waste paper will decrease; At the same time, China's waste paper consumption has been stable and the increment is limited. On the whole, domestic waste paper is in short supply, and the long-term price center is stable and upward

1. Domestic and foreign prices are differentiated. The price of domestic waste paper is subject to domestic supply and demand

different from pulp (wood pulp + non wood pulp). In recent years, China's imported waste paper has been subject to obvious policy supervision. Among them, in July 2017, China officially issued a notice to the WTO that it would no longer import mixed waste paper since 2018; In March, 2018, China lowered the standard for the proportion of impurities in imported waste paper from 1.5% to 0.5%, and the quality requirements for imported waste paper were raised again. Under the supervision of import policies, waste paper prices at home and abroad began to differentiate. Considering that it is a high probability event for China to tighten the import volume of waste paper in the future, the proportion of domestic waste paper used by the industry will continue to increase, while the differentiation of waste paper prices at home and abroad continues, and domestic waste paper prices will take more account of domestic supply and demand changes

2. The import of waste paper continues to tighten, and the increment of domestic waste paper is limited

according to the data of China paper Yearbook, the total recycling volume of waste paper in the world in 2015 was 241 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and the year-on-year growth rate of recycling volume has been relatively stable in recent years

China and the United States are the world's top two waste paper producers, accounting for 20% of the output, which is mainly due to the high papermaking output and many sources of waste paper in both countries. From the perspective of trade pattern, the United States is the largest exporter of waste paper, accounting for 32% of the world's total exports. At the same time, Japan and Europe are also important exporters of waste paper. In contrast, China's waste paper consumption is greater than its output, and the waste paper is not enough for its own use, so it does not have the export capacity

in 2017, China's waste paper recycling volume was about 5000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. Although domestic waste paper recycling has continued to increase in recent years, it is still difficult to meet self-use, and the self-sufficiency rate of waste paper is only 63.8%. The low recovery rate of waste paper is an important reason for the shortage of domestic waste paper. The recovery rate of waste paper in China is only 47%, which is significantly lower than the level of more than 60% in the United States, Japan, Europe and other places

the core reason for the gap in recovery rate is that China's waste paper recovery system is not perfect, and there are many problems, such as insufficient network, low industry concentration, poor operating capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, and lack of unified standards in the industry. Looking ahead, we expect that there is still broad room to improve China's recycling rate in the future. First, benefiting from the preferential policies, China's waste paper recycling system will continue to be improved. According to the medium and long term plan for the construction of renewable resources recycling system (2015-2020) and the opinions on promoting the transformation and upgrading of renewable resources recycling industry, it is expected that China's waste paper recycling volume will increase to 55 million tons in 2020, with a corresponding recycling rate of 50%; Second, considering the current year-on-year rise in the price of domestic waste paper, the profitability of the waste paper recycling industry will increase, which will also stimulate the development of the waste paper recycling industry

in 2017, China imported 25.72 million tons of waste paper, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. The imported waste paper mainly came from the United States, Britain and Japan, accounting for 45%, 12% and 10% respectively. It is expected that the import volume of waste paper will continue to decline to about 20million tons in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of about 22%

one of the reasons is that China's overall waste paper import is tightened at present. Banning the import of mixed waste paper will affect the import volume of about 5million tons, and the reduction of impurity content standard will also increase the difficulty of import

the second is that the Sino US trade friction intensified in 2018. At present, China imposes a 25% tariff on the import of American waste, which also significantly reduces the import price advantage of American waste, thereby affecting the total volume and the structure of import countries. Looking ahead, according to the "opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Comprehensively Strengthening Ecological Environmental Protection and firmly fighting the battle for pollution prevention and control" issued by the State Council in June, 2016, China will strive to basically achieve zero import of solid waste by the end of 2020. Therefore, we expect that the tightening trend of China's waste paper import will remain unchanged in the next two years, and the import volume will continue to decline rapidly

3. China's waste paper consumption is stable, but the growth is weak

China is the world's largest waste paper consumer, accounting for 32% of the total global consumption. Because of the low self-sufficiency rate, China needs to import a large amount of waste paper, and the import of waste paper accounts for 51% of the total global import. According to the China paper yearbook data, China's waste paper consumption in 2017 was about 78 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 0.9% over the past five years. The low growth rate stems from the current mature development of China's packaging paper industry and limited incremental demand

in recent years, China's e-commerce industry has experienced rapid development, which has correspondingly stimulated the development of the packaging paper industry. However, at present, China's per capita annual apparent consumption of packaging paper has reached 50 kg, higher than the global average of 32 kg per capita annual consumption. In the long run, it is expected that the demand of China's packaging paper industry will still increase, but the space is limited. It is conservatively predicted that the compound growth rate of all kinds of paper by 2020 will be between 0.0% and 1.0%. The compound growth rate of waste paper consumption from 2018 to 2020 will be 0.6%, with an annual increment of about 680000 tons

4. Domestic waste paper is in short supply, which can ensure that the pointer of the experimental machine will fall within the first shift quadrant of the disk reading when the test object is damaged.

based on the above analysis, it is assumed that China's waste paper recycling volume will increase by 167, 167, 167 million tons and consumption will increase by 680, 680, 690000 tons from 2018 to 2020. However, due to the continuous tightening of waste paper import, it is expected that the waste paper import volume will fall to 5million tons by 2020, corresponding to a reduction of 514, 858, and 7million tons from 2018 to 2020. Based on this calculation, the supply gap of waste paper in China in 2018-2020 was 4.15 million tons, 7.59 million tons and 6.02 million tons respectively, accounting for 5% to 10% of the total national supply. Therefore, on the whole, domestic waste paper will continue to be in short supply from 2018 to 2020

although the price of domestic waste paper has been slightly weak recently, considering that the import of domestic waste paper will decline sharply in the next two years, and the recovery volume is difficult to quickly fill the supply gap, domestic waste paper